August 26, 2009

BJP's reverse journey of a thousand miles began with a defeat

Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. This phrase, according to The Phrase Finder, originated as a quotation by John Emerich Edward Dalberg Acton, first Baron Acton (1834–1902). The historian and moralist expressed this opinion in a letter to Bishop Mandell Creighton in 1887: "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
The Phrase Finder goes on to quote another English politician - William Pitt, the Elder, The Earl of Chatham and British Prime Minister from 1766 to 1778, who is wrongly attributed as the source. He did say something similar, in a speech to the UK House of Lords in 1770: "Unlimited power is apt to corrupt the minds of those who possess it"
Now, I have coined a new phrase which you may not find anywhere else other than this blog. “When in power BJP’s bear markets had no support and when out of power, its bull markets have no resistance.”
Those who are in the investing markets will fathom this faster than those who are not or in other words BJP will understand this faster than Congress. BJP, as a party, has no choice now but to split. A vertical split will destroy the party forever. A horizontal split will put the party into a greater dilemma. But it has to split and the beginning of this split has already begun.
The split will be between those who believe in a rabid politics and those who believe in progressive method but without diluting the party ideology. Many may say people like Narendra Modi will go to the rabid political arena if given a chance to choose. I would rather say they will support the progressive section, may be out of compulsion or out of necessity. The only way that the current BJP or a split BJP can survive in Indian politics is to shed its image as a rabid party, not as a right wing fundamentalist party. The party is already brimming with two sections of people. One with a bucketful of oil and the other with a bucket of water. Oil and water cannot mix together and so the party has to bear the painful partition sooner or later.
For BJP, the real struggle is to find a leader with national acceptance. Rajnath Singh, the current president, has little knowledge outside UP, where he belongs to. Any other leaders like Arun Jaitely or Bal Apte(the person who could be the dark horse for BJP Presidentship) or for that matter Murli Manohar Joshi or Sushma Swaraj cannot even gather a crowd of a thousand by their aura. They stand no chance in front of a huge personality that Congress is cultivating in the form of Rahul Gandhi.
No, I did not forget to mention Narendra Modi here. Rather, he has no chance of getting into national politics and therefore his mention is not warranted. His golden touch is over even in Gujarat. His panic reaction to Jaswant Singh’s book by banning it without even reading it is a classic example of how unsecured he has become. He judged the book by its cover. All his legislators and district party chiefs are just waiting for the right moment to catapult a rebellion against him. And this rebellion could be the father of all rebellions. The real architect of rebellion, Shankarsinh Waghela, will be put to shame by this revolt. September 2009, therefore, is crucial for him as the results of the by-elections in Gujarat will seal his fate.
As Jaswant Singh said, Sardar Patel, was not a Sangh guy. He was in fact against the RSS. But see the irony of BJP that it has to put Sardar in the same category as their ideologues because Patels in Gujarat is a huge force and you just cannot antagonize them. But the damage is already done and it is not by Jaswant Singh but by Modi himself.
Recent violence between Rabaris and Patels in Ahmedabad is an indicator to the social unrest Gujarat is facing. These two are not the oppressed communities but influential ones. Two major sections, Dalits and Tribals, are waiting to implode. It is just a matter of time that they recoup and reenergize themselves because they are oppressed class and cannot react the way Rabaris or Patels did.
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, so goes the saying. Gujarat’s strong link for the party was the promises and development plank that Modi promised to his ‘subjects’. But this has become its weakest link and is thoroughly exposed now. Modi was trying to teach the Gujarati entrepreneurs how to do business as if they had no idea about it. It fell flat. Familiarity breeds contempt and Modi’s foot soldiers, district chiefs and local leader and others responsible for reach out to masses, are thoroughly disappointed on being “treated like a dirt.” But Modi will take the solace from the saying that great men are almost always bad men
For Modi’s detractors, more inside his regime than those who revolted, this is a golden chance for revenge. And in politics, revenge is a dish best served cold. With SIT sitting right in front of CM residence and Supreme Court on the backyard of it, there are many who says the political days of the Hindu Hriday Samrat are numbered. Having said this, you cannot rule out the possibility of people like Modi boomeranging from nowhere to the centre of gravity. Remember the proverb, he who laughs last laughs longest.